The chapter's section on macroeconomic factors observes that during financially turbulent times, the likelihood and severity of NFR events increase. It also highlights a peculiar timing challenge in establishing causality. What is that challenge as per the chapter?
- A. NFR events occur instantaneously with economic shocks, making causality easy to prove
- B. The connections between NFR and macroeconomic conditions are often delayed — an economic downturn today may result in NFR losses years later
- C. NFR events are completely independent of macroeconomic cycles, so no causality exists
- D. NFR losses always precede macroeconomic downturns
Show answer & explanation
Correct answer: B. The connections between NFR and macroeconomic conditions are often delayed — an economic downturn today may result in NFR losses years later
Correct: (B) Why correct: The chapter explicitly says these 'connections are often delayed, meaning an economic downturn today may result in NFR losses years later'. Why others wrong: (A) instant causality is the opposite of what the chapter says; (C) NFR is influenced by macro factors per the chapter; (D) reverse causation is not the chapter's view.
Study this chapter: Non-financial RISK Analysis and Macroeconomic Factors PART 1